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EZEKIEL PHALANA
Broker survey reveals rising confidence amid increasingly segmented market conditions
The latest 1Q26 broker survey signals a cautiously improving outlook for the commercial property market, as the sector begins to emerge from a prolonged downturn. Broker satisfaction has risen to 69%, with nearly half of respondents (44%) reporting increased activity compared to the previous quarter—an encouraging indication that momentum is gradually returning.
However, this recovery is far from uniform. The market is becoming increasingly segmented, with clear divergence across asset classes reflecting both cyclical improvements and deeper structural shifts.
The industrial sector continues to stand out as the market’s strongest performer. With a national activity rating of 6.21 , industrial property is benefiting from sustained demand in logistics and warehousing, alongside constrained supply in key areas. This demand-led tightening has positioned the sector at the forefront of the recovery, reinforcing its appeal to investors and developers alike.
Retail property, while not as robust as industrial, is showing steady signs of stabilisation. Its national rating has improved to 5.23, pointing to a gradual rebalancing after several challenging years. As supply adjusts to more realistic demand levels and consumer activity normalises, the sector appears to be finding firmer footing.
In contrast, the office sector remains under significant pressure and continues to lag behind. With a national activity rating of 4.84 out of 10 the lowest among all asset classes—it is the only segment to record a year-on-year decline. Persistent oversupply, coupled with evolving workplace dynamics such as hybrid and remote working, continues to weigh on performance. Unlike other sectors, the challenges facing office property are structural rather than purely cyclical, suggesting a longer path to recovery.
Geographically, the recovery is being led by coastal metropolitan areas, where economic activity and demand have rebounded more strongly. Inland regions, by comparison, remain in an adjustment phase, reflecting uneven economic conditions across the country.
In summary, the 1Q26 survey highlights a commercial property market that is steadily improving but increasingly differentiated. Industrial property remains the clear leader, retail is stabilising, and office continues to recalibrate in response to lasting structural changes. As the recovery unfolds, market participants will need to navigate this segmentation carefully, aligning strategies with the distinct dynamics shaping each sector.
ADDITIONAL INFO BY FNB.